How To Bet £20 on Saturday: Door looks open for 20-1 surprise

It’s fast approaching the stage of the jumps season where horses looked after during the winter with a profitable spring campaign in mind on better ground tend to start to come to the fore.

Unfortunately, the weather has turned everything on its head, but backers of Lastbutnotleast should not be complaining if she can oblige at a big price in one of the big handicaps that highlights the card at Kelso on Saturday.

The highlight on the All-Weather card at Kempton is the fillies’ Listed race, but it looks too hard to me. Instead I’ll try a couple of bets in the handicaps.

As a self-confessed Kelso lover, I’m delighted to see the track taking centre stage on Saturday, although the heavy ground clearly is not quite what might have been expected when the creation of this meeting was first mooted.

Lastbutnotleast, so named because she was the last horse bought by Ginger McCain before his death, has had a difficult season – in unfortunate contrast to many of her stablemates.

Having broken a blood vessel first time out and been pulled up, she then ended up grinding out an attritional victory in bottomless ground at Haydock, where she was clear for much of the race, but gave so much in the process that she barely scrambled over the last two fences.

The effects of that exhausting effort were clear from an early stage when last of three at Leicester subsequently, but she has since had a long break and returns fresh and back over hurdles, plus has her ideal ground conditions.

There are clearly question-marks over her heading into the Edinburgh Gin Handicap Hurdle, but it’s worth pointing out that she is still unbeaten over timber.

It’s been enjoyable watching Tropics find a second lease of life over the winter and I don’t think he’s quite done with so back him for the Betfred ‘Supports Jack Berry House’ Handicap.

Although this is a 0-105 contest, there is not a lot at the top end of that bracket, and it looks a nice bit of placing. He has not been seen at Kempton for a while, but I don’t think returning to going this way around is going to bother him.

Raucous takes the eye on debut for Robert Cowell having been bought by Tom Morley at the sales, but I was not convinced by his attitude last year, and his trainer will need to have used all of the sweetening powers we have seen from him in the past to bring him back.

By contrast, Tropics is clearly full of beans. Those who have followed the great game for a while will remember how Ivory’s dad Ken was a dab hand at keeping his older sprinters on the boil - that talent appears to have been passed down the line.

Cowell fields three in the five-furlong handicap at 2.05 and it’s another race that takes my eye.

It pains me a little to say it, as he was such an admirably consistent performer throughout last year, but for win purposes Amomentofmadness is usually want to take one, as I don’t think he’s well-handicapped and there were a couple of times last season I was not convinced he was quite putting his head down in the finish. He takes out a good chunk of the market here too.

Jumira Bridge makes his debut for Cowell, having been brought by Morley out of Roger Varian’s yard for 100,000 guineas at Tattersalls last November.

The booking of Jim Crowley suggests connections are expecting a decent run first time for the yard.

But I’m going to take a wild each-way flyer on lesser-fancied stablemate Green Door, who starts the season off a 7lb lower mark than he did last year, helped by a couple of down-the-field runs in unsuitably bottomless conditions.

He has questions to answer about how much ability (and will to win) remains since the glory days of his 2013 Flying Childers Stakes victory, but I like his draw in stall one and I rate his 7lb-claiming apprentice rider.

Too keen for his own good a couple of times last season, I wonder if Green Door might just go from the front here (plenty of his rivals prefer to take a lead) and a change of headgear and a bend to keep him interested are all other angles that might help.

Fakenham puzzle:

Finally, I had a good look at the Jarrold Ladies Raceday Fakenham Novices’ Hurdle (Qualifier), without quite being able to make my mind up. It’s probably a race to consider though, as Oistrakh Le Noir is likely to be over-bet after his unfortunate Newbury defeat last month.

The complicating factor is that this is a qualifier for the new £100,000 Bet365 Novices’ Handicap Hurdle final on Sandown’s final day of the jumps season. I won’t spell it out, but can’t help but wonder if some eyes might be on the bigger prize.

How To Bet £20 on Saturday:

(Prices correct 3pm on Friday)

2.05 Kempton: Green Door £2 each-way at 20-1 with Betfair, Boylesport and Paddy Power

2.40 Kempton: Tropics £10 win at 7-2 with William Hill

3.35 Kelso: Lastbutnotleast £6 win at a general 15-2