Nicol's Notes: horses to follow and nap for Goodwood

There’s been plenty of water under the bridge since my last column. Several Classics, Royal Ascot and the July Meeting have come and gone and we’re now in the thick of things ahead of the summer highlights, with the Group One King George & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot on Saturday plus the Qatar Goodwood Festival and Galway Festival taking place next week.

Let’s start with a quick update on my horses to follow for the 2023 season over the first-half of the season.

Al Husn has led the way, defeating subsequent Group One scorer Nashwa when landing the Group Three Hoppings Stakes last month. She is likely to re-oppose the Gosden filly in the Qatar Nassau Stakes and wouldn’t be without an each-way chance if continuing on an upward trajectory.

Desert Order, Military Order, Yotarid and Ziggy are all on the sidelines but remain in the tracker with the view of appearing from August onwards. Then there’s Promoter who looks to have a great chance at opening his account for the season at Newmarket on Saturday.

Circle Of Fire, Educator and Honiton are all removed. The latter-named was successful at odds of 11-2 at Newmarket in May but the first two have proven very disappointing in this first-half of the year.

The hope was that the William Haggas-trained Educator would benefit from being gelded over the winter but he has flattered to deceive in four starts this season and ultimately looks trip-less and difficult to win with.

Circle Of Fire clearly has plenty of potential and is sure to win races going forward but may just struggle this season as a three-year-old from a mark of 102. He’s another whose best trip is yet to be determined.

Aurora Dawn is first name in to replenish the numbers and I think Ed Walker’s filly is very well-handicapped from a mark of 82. She took five races to get off the mark but was deeply impressive when doing so at Newmarket in May and consolidated that with a career-best when winning again at Newbury last time out, having finished second over a mile in between the two victories.

Seven furlongs is clearly her best trip and I was taken by her performance last time out. The daughter of Awtaad did well to win considering the sedate early pace and was the only horse on the entire Newbury card to run below 34 seconds for the final three furlongs.

Indeed, she ran slightly quicker than subsequent two-year-old Listed scorer Shuwari when carrying 9lb more. Of course, age has to be considered in that, but it tells me that Aurora Dawn has plenty in hand off a mark of 82 and I’m keen to follow her for the rest of the summer.

Followers of the Flat Out podcast will have noted that George Boughey was pressed on a horse called King Lear before his debut during a recent episode. I was told back in the spring that he was highly regarded and urged my co-host, Joey Laver, to enquire about the colt.

George seemed a little nonplussed in his response, explaining that the three-year-old had been “fast asleep over the last six months” but, coincidentally, had worked well with a maiden winner earlier that morning and was generally very positive about the son of Galileo.

King Lear has since debuted and ran a race full of promise in fourth despite a marked drift beforehand at Newmarket. Slowly away, he raced in rear throughout but made good progress under William Buick, taking time for the penny to drop but closing on the leaders all the way to the line under tender handling.

The second and third are rated 86 and 90 respectively with the winner sure to move into Stakes races going forward. The fact King Lear finished on their heels shows he, too, could be above average and should have no problem winning a novice next time out. He looks an exciting prospect.

Finally, add Orchid Bloom to your tracker. A winner of two of her four starts, she was a class apart when winning on handicap debut at Nebwury last weekend, travelling strongly throughout on her favoured softer ground and winning in fine style for William Haggas.

She’s been hit with an 8lb rise for that effort but I think her revised mark of 93 is still some way short of her ceiling. Unexposed over a mile, she will have plenty of options in the second half of the season and I’m keen to keep her on-side, especially in a handicap next time, before hopefully moving into Stakes race come the season’s end.

The Qatar Goodwood Festival begins on Tuesday and one of my favourite races of the year is the Golden Mile Handicap, which is now under the sponsorship of Coral.

Naturally, my fondness for this is due to having a bit of success in the race but the stats are there to point you in the right direction. Year after year, runners drawn low come to the fore.

I have crunched the numbers and 18 of the past 20 winners (90%) were all drawn in single-figure stalls, a truly remarkable stat when considering the average field size in that time is 18. If you wanted to narrow that even further, 15 of those 20 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower.

This can be beefed up even more when you also consider 45 of 60 horses (75%) that finished in the first three places in those 20 renewals were all drawn in single-figure stalls.

As a result, I never go anywhere near this race from an ante post perspective, but I will start to make a shortlist of the horses I like once the final confirmations are in tomorrow afternoon and then be ready for declarations and the release of the stalls positions on Wednesday morning.

The form of the Group Two Middleton Stakes at York in May continues to go from strength to strength.

Free Wind ran out a narrow winner on the Knavesmire but always looked in command from Rogue Millennium inside the final furlong despite racing over a trip short of her best. She has subsequently disappointed when finishing fifth in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot but it was reported that she “ran flat” by Frankie Dettori and is worthy of close inspection back against her own sex in the second half of the year. She can win a Group One this season.

Conversely, Rogue Millennium was successful at Royal Ascot, dropping to a mile to run out a ready winner of the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.

The third home, Poptronic, has since gone on to win the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock, reversing form with Sea Silk Road (sixth in the Middleton) who had won the Pinnacle Stakes the time before that.

Add in Stay Alert, fifth in the Middleton, who has since chased home Via Sistina in the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes and you’ve got a race chock full of high-class form.

As mentioned, Free Wind is worth keeping on-side but so, too, is the fourth horse, State Occasion. Ralph Beckett’s mare hasn’t run since May but made it to the final stage of the John Smith’s Cup this month but was not declared and was similarly engaged in the Listed Lyric Stakes at York having initially been jocked up earlier in the week.

Rated 103, State Occasion is of significant interest wherever she goes next and is seemingly not far off a run. I’m sure connections will be desperate to get Black Type for her but she is clearly well-handicapped and is another to add to the Racing TV Tracker. She is not to be missed when she runs next.

The going could be particularly testing at Goodwood next week. The latest updates from the track showed that it is already “Soft” on the Sussex Downs, although it should dry it out over the next few days before the forecast takes a turn for the worse once again.

It depends on what weather app that you trust but Tuesday night looks quite unsettled, and it won’t take long for any further rain to change the going back to “Soft” or worse.

Amleto is a horse who won’t mind any rain and he would be a strong fancy in Goodwood’s opening race on Wednesday when making his handicap bow. He sluiced through the mud when winning on seasonal reappearance at Chester in May and this brother of Sea Of Class looks to have been let in lightly from an opening perch of 89.

Described as a bit of a “playboy” by his trainer last year, Amleto was gelded during the interim and the operation seemed to have worked the oracle on that Chester performance, as he travelled powerfully throughout before quickening clear to win ears-pricked at the line.

Charlie Appleby’s Secret State had won the same Chester maiden before winning this Goodwood handicap last year and I’m hoping this son of Sea The Stars can follow suit.