2023 Kentucky Derby: big-race preview and tip from Rachel Candelora

The Kentucky Derby has long been viewed as American’s most historic and storied race, but today's 149th renewal may take things one step further.

The scratching of five horses from the field in less than a 48 -our period is unheard of and with the late scratch of the long-time favourite Forte the door has now been left open for a sensational first win in the race by a Japanese-trained horse. Both of the Japanese runners have a great chance but for me #22 MANDARIN HERO, the bigger price of the pair, is the one for whom racing immortality awaits. I shall explain why I think so below.

In the absence of Forte, the horse who would have been my selection until his late absence, Todd Pletcher's remaining two runners are #5 TAPIT TRICE and #6 KINGSBARNS.

Tapit Trice has won four of his five career stars and is coming into the Derby off the back of a tenacious late charge to win the Grade One Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland, while Kingsbarns is a prefect three out of three after landing the Grade Two Louisiana Derby last time out at the Fair Grounds.

While Kingsbarns' lack of racing experience is a concern given only two of 148 winners of the Kentucky Derby have won with only three starts under their belt, the likes of Justify (2018) and Big Brown (2008) have recently shown that with the right handling this stat is not that important any more.

Pletcher has given Kingsbarns a much longer break than normal after his Louisiana Derby win and therefore he is coming here fresh, while he has also been noted as training well over the surface in the morning - often an overlooked clue going into the Derby. Kingsbarns appeals far more as an each-way prospect than Tapit Trice, his achilles heel being that he is a slow starter and that is something which has proved the downfall of so many fancied horses in the past.

In recent years the “Japanese Juggernaut” has taken over global horse racing and this year’s Derby is no exception as Japan fields two of the 19 runners.

There have been four previous Japanese runners in the Derby with Master Fencer’s 6th in 2019 the best showing. At face value, Japan’s best chance is #17 DERMA SOTOGAKE who is coming in here off the back of a visually impressive and all-the-way 5½-length win the Group Two UAE Derby.

This son of US Champion Sprinter Mind Your Biscuits can make the running or sit off the pace and has been another of the talking horses in the morning at Churchill with his works, especially with his final work April 26 where he jumped off five lengths behind former Derby rival (now scratched) Continuar and finished well on top over five furlongs – a move that impressed the watchers, clockers, and even his trainer.

The other Japanese runner is #22 MANDARIN HERO, who will not get as much credit as he is warranted after being a reserve that only drew into the race on Thursday night. However, his connections opted to ship this dual stakes winner to the US earlier to take in a prep race where he finished a nose 2nd in the Grade One Santa Anita Derby, making a strong rally between rivals to just miss out and was possibly unlucky to not be awarded the race as he was bumped by the winner in mid-stretch. Due to last-minute defections he is the only Santa Anita Derby participant to take part in this race and he has the benefit of former Eclipse Award Champion Apprentice Kazushi Kimura aboard.

I am really pleased that #22 Mandarin Hero has drawn into the field and think he is likely to be the value play on any ticket. The comparative lack of racing experience for #6 Kingsbarns doesn’t bother me as he was so visually impressive when winning at the Fair Grounds. #17 Derma Sotogake gets a lot of respect from me and earns a final place on my Derby shortlist.

Ninety minutes before the Derby field goes to the gate, some of America’s top turf performers line up in the Grade One Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic and #8 SANTIN bids to become the fourth dual winner of this race (in the last 15 years) having taken it by a neck twelve months ago.

Representing the Oaks-winning connections of trainer Brendan Walsh and jockey Tyler Gaffalione, he quickened up well to win a woefully slow-run renewal last year but then showed his versatility when winning a much quicker-run Grade One Arlington Million over course and distance in August.

He has not won since, but Churchill Downs appears to bring out the very best in him and a line can be put through his 4th placed finish in the Kentucky Cup Classic on the all-weather at Turfway Park, when he stumbled badly at the start and was never at the races.