Tote Placepot tips: Saturday Newbury picks from Dan Overall

Last year's Tipstar winner and jumps racing expert Dan Overall shares his picks for Saturday's Tote placepot at Newbury, a card headlined by the £250,000 Coral Gold Cup. Enjoy every moment live on Racing TV.

We’ve seen some smart types win this in recent years and names like Luccia, Floressa and La Bague Au Roi spring to mind, but with the notable absence of Dysart Enos here this looks to be a very modest renewal.

A few of these have been kept busy in lesser races, and the mare with the greatest scope for improvement could well be MIGHTY MOTH for a trainer that does exceptionally well with mares. While she’s yet to win a race, she performed with credit in some good bumpers, including when second at Cheltenham when finishing two lengths ahead of Mary (conceding 8lb).

Time may tell that Mighty Moth bumped into two high-class types when finishing third to Jango Baie and Tellherthename at Ascot last time. While no match for those two, she pulled nicely clear of the remainder and looks a straightforward, likeable type. That looks strong form in the context of this race and Noel Williams hurdlers tend to improve from their debuts; his strike-rate increases to 14 per cent (from 7 per cent) with runners having their second start over hurdles as opposed to their first.

Selection: Mighty Moth

A few interesting types here, although the clear standout to me is INCH HOUSE.

His chase debut behind Chianti Classico was encouraging but he took his form to an entirely different level last time out, bolting up in what appeared to be a very strong novice handicap chase. Way Out reopposes on 9lb better terms and on a surface that would give him a fair chance of reversing the form, but the five-and-a-half length margin separating the pair at the line underplays the superiority of Inch House on the day.

This will be just his sixth start under rules, and with the majority of his rivals being fairly exposed he looks to have an excellent chance of following up his course success.

Selection: Inch House

Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have won six of the past nine renewals and the former has sent subsequent Grade One winners Bravemansgame, Stage Star and Stay Away Fay to this race. Both trainers are represented again here, but I’m not entirely convinced by their representatives.

Instead, preference is for MASACCIO, who featured in my “Winless Ones To Watch” series. He ran to a good level in bumpers and there was a lot to like about his hurdling debut, where he beat subsequent Ascot winner Beat The Bat. His jumping lacked fluency that day which, in some respects, made his success all the more impressive.

He will have to brush up his hurdling technique now, but there’s every reason to expect him to do so and we know a galloping two and a half miles suits him well. He could be vulnerable for win purposes under a penalty, but I expect him to run well.

Selection: Masaccio

An open race where Jet Powered, who was subject to great fanfare at the beginning of last season, currently heads the market. In truth, I find him borderline impossible to assess; while he still has potential, he has plenty of questions to answer and his position at the head of the market looks borne out of hope rather than evidence-backed substance.

Of the remainder, the runner who looks to have the most potential is NORTH LODGE. He has a 602-day absence to overcome but, unlike the favourite, his novice hurdle form is rock solid. He beat Balco Coastal in a Grade Two at Cheltenham and finished an admirable third in the Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree behind Might I and the ill-fated Three Stripe Life. He was sent off an 11-2 chance for that Grade One assignment, and yet he is currently a double-figure price for a handicap here off 142.

I understand that the market has priced in the absence, but recent stable tours have been positive and he remains an exciting prospect.

Here’s hoping for a good day for the McNeill family!

Selection: North Lodge

As soon as Iberico Lord’s nose crossed the finish line in the Greatwood, UNDER CONTROL has been all the rage for the race better known as the Gerry Fielden.

Her victory over that subsequent big-race winner in the Novices' Championship Final at Sandown back in April is undeniably strong form with the likes of Arqoob, General Medrano and Tapley all winning in recent weeks.

Clearly held in high regard, Nicky Henderson faced a race against time to get her ready for Cheltenham which, in hindsight, probably came too soon. With the exception of that blip, she’s looked an exciting filly and Henderson has won this race in three of the past four years, including with Epatante in 2019.

The trainer would not have been short of options for this race - and many would have considered Luccia an ideal type to run here at the start of the season - so it looks notable that Under Control has been chosen and I’d say this will have been the plan for some time.

Selection: Under Control

This is sure to break the hearts of many Placepot players who have made it this far!

The £250,000 feature is a typically competitive renewal and a case can (and will) be made for many. In a race like this, I’m happy to play two at a price for Placepot purposes.

The first will be TWIG, who I’ve warmed to the more I’ve looked at the race. With just six chase starts, he’s one of the least exposed in the field and is yet to be out of the first two over fences. A prominent racer, he won the competitive Summer Cup on his penultimate start and returned from a break with a great effort at Cheltenham in October on ground that would have been too soft. Twig often improves for his first run after a break and Ben Pauling is starting to hit form after an uncharacteristically slow start to the season. He fits a lot of the major trends and, if the ground is riding on the quick side, he has a great each-way chance.

The other choice is STOLEN SILVER, who on stable vibes and jockey bookings is the pick of the Sam Thomas pair. He relished the step up to three miles at Chepstow on his return last time and, while it wasn’t a deep race, the style of his win was impressive and suggested that there was more to come from him over this trip. The presence of Ahoy Senor ensures he’s on a nice racing weight, and with the stable in form, he’s capable of a bold bid.

Selections: Twig and Stolen Silver