Tote placepot tips: Dan Overall's Wincanton picks for Saturday

12:40 – EBF Stallions 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle.

Paul Nicholls has an outstanding 38% strike-rate in maiden/novice hurdles at Wincanton. This particular race has contributed that healthy figure, with seven of the pervious nine renewals going the way of the champion trainer.

He runs two here; Annie K, who disappointed on her rules debut having bolted up in point-to-point, but it’s Meatloaf who looks to hold a leading chance. His two bumper wins came at this track and he was far from disgraced in two runs in listed company; the form of his Newbury fifth is working out particularly well.

The last trainer to win this race not named Paul Nicholls was Alan King; Edwardstone beat Fiddlerontheroof on his hurdling debut in a particularly strong renewal back in 2019. This year, he is represented by Dancing In Brazil, who just under three-lengths behind the aforementioned Meatloaf in the Listed Junior Bumper at Cheltenham on New Years’ Day. Interestingly, he is still an entire, and connections have noted that they’re keen to get black type with him over hurdles. Alan King has a 29% strike-rate with colts over hurdles, with 63% hitting the frame. He’s also enjoying a fine spell with his novice hurdlers at present, with five of his thirteen runners since the start of October winning.

Selections: Meatloaf and Dancing In Brazil.

1:15 – Boodles Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase.

A wide-open race, as so many of these conditional jockeys’ handicaps tend to be, with it trading 6/1 the field at the time of writing.

Flagrant Delitiep has been subject to strong market support, both ante-post and post-declarations, and it’s easy to see why. In his nine starts at Wincanton, he’s recorded two wins and been placed an additional four times. After a disappointing 22/23 season, he now finds himself nineteen-pounds below his last wining mark but he shaped encouragingly on his seasonal reappearance, which he often improves for, finishing fourth behind the in-form Sacre Coeur having chased him for much of the way. He gets close to his ideal conditions, and if retaining his old ability, should be running well in a race like this.

You can make a case for plenty of the others, but given Venetia Williams form at present, Enjoy Your Life warrants close attention. Bought from France in May 2022, he ran three times over hurdles this Spring, with his best run coming at Wincanton when chasing home Oscars Moonshine, who has won his two subsequent starts. A chase winner in France, going back over fences promises to show him in a better light on these shores, just as it did with Victtorino last weekend. Ned Fox has a remarkable 44% strike-rate in conditional jockey’s races when riding for Venetia Williams, too.

Selections: Flagrant Delitiep and Enjoy Your Life.

1:50 – Boodles 'Rising Stars' Novices' Chase.

Paul Nicholls has won this race ten times, and according to the trainer, this has been the target for Knappers Hill even before he made his chasing debut at Chepstow. His first start over the larger obstacles was satisfactory without being spectacular; on paper, finishing second to the experienced Unexpected Party (with twenty-lengths back to the third) is solid form for this level and given natural improvement, he is clearly the one to beat. However, Nicholls has had three odds-on shots turned over here in the past three renewals.

Captain Conby was a good handicap hurdler but with his pedigree containing plenty of good chasers, Eamon “Dusty” Sheehy was optimistic he’d make an even better chaser. Impressive on his chasing debut over an inadequate trip before finishing a distant second to Sharjah. He did well to rally that day having looked as if he may tail off, and he’s largely been very consistent. If Knappers Hill were to underperform, he’d be the most likely to pick up the pieces.

Givega and Doyen Star are both fascinating chasing debutants and should both do well over fences, but are just a watching brief for now.

Selections: Knappers Hill and Captain Conby.

2:25 – 62nd Badger Beer Handicap Chase.

Frodon bids to repeat last year’s success, and from the same mark as twelve-months ago, he should not be written off lightly.

However, I suspect this is a better race than last year and so I’m prepared to look elsewhere.

His stablemate, Threeunderthrufive, enjoyed a fruitful novice chase campaign and having looked the type to land a big handicap last term, it was slightly disappointing that he couldn’t do just that. He did run admirably in the Scottish National and this is arguably the most realistic task he’s faced in handicap company so far. He is four from four going right-handed, goes well fresh and a mark of 147 isn’t beyond him.

The other runner that makes plenty of appeal is course and distance specialist, Certainly Red. A trip to Henrietta Knight prior to last season looked to work the oracle, as he rattled off three handicap victories in succession, looking to have plenty of hand in doing so. He was set a tough task in the Bet365 Gold Cup at the end of last season, where a couple of late mistakes checked his momentum, but he’s been dropped two-pounds for that and Marc Goldstein is back on for the first time since his previous win; the importance of that can’t be understated, as he’s been a tricky horse to get the best out of and Marc has clearly struck up a great repour with him. Currently 12-1, he looks overpriced to me and I suspect this race has been the target for a while given his effectiveness at Wincanton.

Selections: Threeunderthrufive and Certainly Red.

3:00 – Jenningsbet Elite Hurdle.

With just five declared, this race could for Placepot purposes is likely to be adversely affected by West Balboa, whose preference is to run at Aintree. In the highly likely scenario that she does not run here, that will leave us with four and a win-only race for Placepot purposes.

Sacre Coeur also has an entry for a handicap chase at Sandown on Sunday. Declarations are not out at present, but it’s not impossible that he ends up running there instead. On hurdles form, he’d have little chance here but given his free-going type, his presence in the race would add another pace angle which could mean Rubaud can’t dictate as he did at Kempton.

Despite his six-pound penalty, Paul Nicholl’s progressive five-year-old is the one to beat with race fitness assured. He’s straightforward, and if Harry Cobden can get an uncontested lead as he did on Knappers Hill twelve-months ago, he’ll be tough to pass.

But Hansard is no forlorn hope; his one below par run came in the Dovecote behind Rubaud, but he’d been impressive in his previous two starts and it was a clear career best in the Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. He travelled really strongly that day but didn’t find as much may have been hoped. His trainer theorised that he didn’t quite stay, so perhaps this sharper test will suit.

Selections: Rubaud and Hansard.

3:32 – Jenningsbet Richard Barber Memorial Mares' Handicap Hurdle.

A tricky end to the card – hopefully all eight runners stand their ground!

This race will have been a long-term plan for many of these. Harry Fry name-checked this as the first target for new acquisition, Great Snow, who was purchased for a lofty £100,000 in May. She certainly has her chance, but so does Lime Avenue who readily beat her last time out under a front-running ride. Lime Avenue has to give her old rival four-pounds, but she looked good value for her win and I don’t think that will be enough for Harry Fry’s mare to reverse the form.

Although Lime Avenue made all last time out, I don’t think she needs to lead. Vicki Vale looked impressive on occasions last season, notably when making all on her rules debut. That performance resulted in her going off 11/1 for the Challow, where she was pulled-up, and she didn’t progress as may have been hoped. Dan Skelton will have had this race in mind for a while, but he’s also mentioned dropping her in and getting her to settle.

If that does happen, front-running duty may be left to Good Luck Charm. Beginning last season on a mark of 115, connections thought they had a well-handicapped mare to go chasing with; her first start over fences looked to prove them right, as she split two much-higher rated mares off level weights, but her chasing career tailed off disappointingly. However, some of her novice hurdle form reads very well; she beat I Spy A Diva (130) off level weights and won a good mares handicap off 112. Now down to a mark of 107, she’s dangerous if reverting to hurdles sparks a revival and it’s worth noting that Anthony Honeyball won this race in 2015 with a mare that also spent the previous season over fences.

Selections: Lime Avenue and Good Luck Charm.