The Verdict Extra: Skelton youngster produces eye-catching RaceiQ data
By Angus McNae
Last Updated: Thu 10 Oct 2024
The Verdict: a potential star trained by Aidan O'Brien plus Sun Chariot analysis
The Verdict this week concentrated on the Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket where Tamfana enjoyed the run of the race to land her first Group One and book a ticket for the QEII on QIPCO British Champions day at Ascot.
I also focused on some interesting two-year-old performances, and those youngsters are also worthy of a place in your Racing TV tracker. You can watch the full show on Racing TV's YouTube page (above) or our website, they are listed below.
Nebras - First in the Virgin Bet Every Saturdaaaaa. aaa. aaa. aaa. a a a aaaa. a ay Money Back EBF Maiden Stakes (Newmarket).
Expanded - First in the Irish Stallion Farms farms farms farms farms EBF (C & G) Maiden (Curragh).
Giselle - First in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF e bf e bef ebf fbfbef F Fillies Maiden (Curragh).
I have also identified a couple of other noteworthy performances from last week, and these horses are also worth adding to your Racing TV.
Wisper
Race: Third in the British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (Newmarket).
Wisper made a big move from the rear of the field to finish third, and did so at a track that historically favours horses that are ridden prominently. In making that move, she recorded the fastest speed in the race of 39.39mph, but she had too much to do.
The race was run at an even tempo, with Ashariba making all the running. Wisper was held up in tenth place after a slow start (she was also the slowest in the race to reach 20mph) and was at a positional disadvantage given the pace of the race.
With rivals in front of her being able to race evenly and finish the contest relatively strongly, they were always going to be hard to run down.
Each horse in the race recorded a Finishing Speed percentage (FSP) above 100 meaning that to win, Wisper had to catch and pass horses who were not stopping. Nonetheless, the effort she made from the rear of the field is noteworthy.
Wisper made her move in the eighth furlong recording the fastest split of 11.63s. This took her into sixth place and his subsequent furlong of 11.67s which was also the fastest split took her into third place. This surge from the back of the field meant that she had little left for a strong final furlong and in recording 13.10s, she was slower than the two horses that beat her.
She has faced unfavourable pace scenarios in her past four starts and if she finds herself in a strongly-run handicap this Autumn, she will be worth supporting, particularly as she handles soft ground well.
The RaceiQ Summary Graph shows that Wisper recorded the slowest to break from the stalls, but she produced the fastest sectional split, and the fastest speed.
Denzil
Race: First in the Peute EBF Junior "National Hunt" Hurdle (Stratford).
The Jumps season starting to get going, and this juvenile hurdler is the best we have seen so far, and I believe he can score again.
He is a full-brother to the very useful Nube Negra, and is from a family that trainer Dan Skelton knows well. The speed he showed when successful at Stratford, and an aptitude for jumping, were identified by the RaceiQ data (below).
He made all the running and maintained an even gallop throughout which allowed him to record a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 100.30% whist being significantly eased after the last. That finishing effort could have certainly been stronger if he had been asked for more effort.
This was a weak contest, but we can look at his data in isolation as a guide to his ability, rather than worrying about what he beat.
The RaceiQ data shows that he gained 3.24 lengths jumping courtesy of him gaining ground at six of the eight hurdles. His jumps at the first two hurdles were not as good as at the following flights, but he soon warmed to his task.
Through the jumping envelope, which is measured from 30 metres before a jump to 30 metres after a jump, we can measure how much speed a horse loses through the envelope, and how quickly they are able to recover full speed.
It is noticeable that Denzil was able to recover his speed very quickly and this is particularly evident through the middle of the race. The table below identifies speed lost and speed recovery time at each hurdle (the first hurdle at the bottom of the table).
His speed recovery time at the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth hurdles are all sub-1.00s which, for a juvenile first time over hurdles, is impressive. He is clearly a fast horse who was suited by this sharp track and his ability to get over his hurdles as quickly as he did is not something that we will see from many juveniles in this early part of the season.
He should be supported wherever he turns up next time out.
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