Horse racing tips: Dave Nevison shares his best bets for Thursday
By Dave Nevison
Last Updated: Fri 14 Jul 2023
Our website tipster Dave Nevison thinks a handicap debutant could be primed to strike from a lowly mark at Hamilton Park on Thursday. Enjoy further action from Leopardstown, Chelmsford and Thirsk live on Racing TV and Racing TV Extra.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 10thSP: 33/1
Paddyplex won his maiden on turf and then an all-weather handicap off a mark of 82 when previously with this yard, and he signalled a return to form last time.
From a mark of 60, he was only beaten a length against a bang in-form winner who was also well weighted. Paddyplex might have got close to beating The King’s Steed if he had broken as well as that rival, but off the same mark here he looks sure to go close - especially now up two furlongs in trip.
Andy Stephens
Finished: 2ndSP: 15/2
There is something that doesn’t look right about this bumper winner running in his first turf handicap off a mark of 46, and he could hardly have been found a weaker race to get started in.
His three turf runs so far have been uninspiring certainly, but they have been behind Arab-owned bluebloods from big stables and this race is a massively different game altogether - only Millie The Minx has shown any real form recently and she is now running off higher marks.
Socks Off is upped in trip and wearing cheekpieces for the first time, so this looks to be the first serious roll of the dice on the Flat. The yard has been a little quiet but I’m not worried about that - Adrian Keatley has had a couple of horses run really well at prices in the last few days, including one with first-time headgear, while WobWobWob was backed when winning a good handicap recently.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 1stSP: 15/8
I am going with a finisher in this big-field handicap and it is the Joanna Mason factor that sways me to Qawamees rather than Kylie Rules - another one from whom I’m waiting for a win.
Qawamees’ only previous handicap success came in the 0-90 bracket and things have not gone brilliantly for him on more than the odd occasion, but he certainly looks capable of winning this if he gets the breaks having been dropped to his lowest-ever mark of 69.
He is absolutely guaranteed a fast pace here which will suit him, he ran well for this jockey on his reappearance in a slowly-run affair and a slight switch in headgear might just get him going a bit quicker than is often the case.
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