Horse racing tips for Monday: Trust Raaeb to bounce back at Lingfield

This consistent performer produced a rare below-par effort at Newmarket last time out, but he probably found the ground too fast on that occasion (he also disappointed twice on good to firm last year) and I’m happy to forgive that effort now he returns to the all-weather.

Robert Cowell’s sprinter was successful over course and distance in November off a rating of 72 and although he is now 4lb higher, he went close off this mark in a higher grade a couple of starts ago.

He should find life easier dropping back into a 0-75 handicap here and he’s won twice plus been placed three times from six starts at Wolverhampton.

He’s also won and been placed three times on the four occasions he’s been ridden by Ray Dawson, who claims a handy 3lb, and was drawn in stall eight when last successful at this venue.

The selection likes to lead, and is drawn on the inside of Sir Rodneyredblood, the only other potential front-runner in the line-up, but Araifjan breaks well, and that should hopefully allow him to cross over and grab the rail.

At 7-1, he is worth siding with each-way with William Hill who are paying four places.

Raaeb won a useful contest over this trip at Chelmsford in April, and a repeat of that effort should see him go close here.

The Godolphin-owned colt failed to back that effort up at Newmarket nine days later, although he was forced to make his own running on that occasion and was not seen to best effect. It is also best to forgive his effort in the Wokingham last time out on ground that would not have suited.

Admittedly, he does need to bounce back from those efforts, but he remains relatively lightly-raced having missed the majority of 2020 and was good enough to be placed at Listed level last year.

He’s only 2lb higher than his victory at Chelmsford and is Jim Crowley’s sole ride on Monday plus Saeed bin Suroor has been operating at a strike-rate of 22 per cent in the past fortnight, which is another positive.

This seven-year-old looks a shade over-priced at 11-1 having caught the eye on his return to action at York in June where he travelled strongly into the race and hit the front inside the final two furlongs before the lack of a recent run took its toll.

He also shaped much better than the bare result last time out as he was far too keen in last place and was left with plenty to do before gradually staying on.

The handicapper has given him a chance as he’s now 4lb below his last winning mark – he was also not beaten far off a 6lb higher mark at Sandown last year – and his draw in stall four will hopefully allow him to get some cover early on.

Blue Medici will need things to fall right, and for the gaps to appear, but he is capable of going close and, at 11-1, he’s worth risking.