How To Bet £20 at Exeter on Sunday: Look out for this Lady

The BBC weather forecast suggest there is a 100 per cent chance of wet and windy weather for Exeter on Sunday morning. I wish I could tell you I was as sure of finding at least one winner on the seven-race card but the likely testing conditions only increase my confidence in Emmpressive Lady landing the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle.

I tipped the Sue Gardner-trained seven-year-old at a big price to win a Grade Two contest at Ascot recently, when the weights were against her, but she was a late non-runner.

Part of my logic that day was that she tied in quite closely with Molly Olly Wishes, who was much shorter in the betting and duly went on to win. So I’m hardly likely to let Emmpressive Lady slip my net here running off a mark of 124, getting between 4lb and 13lb from her six rivals with conditions to her liking.

She’s a mare who has looked all about stamina in her ten races, but she’s only twice been unleashed over 3m. The second of those was on her latest start, at Kempton over Christmas, when she stayed on stoutly to beat Tequila Blaze (pair clear) by more than five lengths. The runner-up had been a good winner at Ascot on her previous start and, in the circumstances, a 5lb rise is the least that Emmpressive Lady could have expected.

A year earlier, she had chased home Molly Olly Wishes in the same race, looking unfortunate not to give her more of a race after surrendering first run and making an untimely error two out. Molly Olly Wishes is now 15lb higher in the ratings, whereas Emmpressive Lady is only 4lb higher.

She’s clearly at home on soft/heavy ground, while Sean Houlihan, who rode her for the first time at Kempton, continues the partnership. For good measure, she was a decisive winner at Exeter on her only previous visit to the track.

The early 7-2 on offer has gone but, even at 11-4, she rates a solid bet to beat rivals who largely disappointed last time or have something to prove.

Midnight River and Coconut Splash are vying for favouritism for the opening Virgin Bet Novices’ Chase but Gustavian is fancied to beat the pair of them and finally put a smile on the face of his frustrated followers.

Gustavian has been a beaten favourite in each of his four races over fences this season, with his tendency to make the odd blunder proving costly.

Overall, he’s a sound jumper – he just seems to lack a bit of focus – and when it all clicks he is going to raise his game. His form, even as it stands, makes him the one to beat and, proven in the mud, now is not the time to desert him.

The Virgin Bet Veterans' Handicap Chase is trappy but I was surprised to see the reliable Sir Ivan chalked up as the outsider of the field.

He’s only 1lb higher than when scoring at Newbury last season and on his latest start was a fine third in the Veterans’ Final at Sandown (second year in succession he had been placed in the race) when only Prime Venture and Final Nudge, who were given more patient rides, finished ahead of him. Aso, who he meets again, ran lamentably (best form on left-handed tracks) and was pulled up.

Sir Ivan has been dropped 3lb for that effort, yet Aso has been eased only 2lb. Go figure.

Run To Milan, who is building a good record at the track, is feared most, while a market move for Encounter A Giant, absent two years since a taking win at Hereford, would be interesting.

Finally, it will be a surprise if bold-jumping front-runner Snow Leopardess fluffs her lines in the Virgin Bet Mares' Chase.

The Becher Chase winner is favoured by the weights and Charlie Longsdon, her trainer, has made no secret of the fact that he’d like to see her rating (145) elevated ahead of the Grand National weights being announced on Tuesday.

She's only 7-4 but I can see her going off much shorter.

£1 Win Yankee on the below plus

2.00 Exeter: Gustavian £3 win at a general 100-30

3.30 Exeter: Emmpressive Lady £4 win at a general 11-4

4.00 Exeter: Snow Leopardess (7-4)

4:30 Exeter: Sir Ivan £2 win at a general 15-2