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Jack Nicol's ten to follow for the 2023 Flat season

Last Updated: Fri 14 Jul 2023

The Flat is back! I’ve been in my element this week with the three-day bet365 Craven meeting providing plenty of quality fare. It always feels like the season really ramps up from here.

I’ve made a point of steering clear of the obvious and already-established stars and hopefully there are one or two diamonds among my list.

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AL HUSN

Trainer: Roger Varian. Age: 4yo filly (Dubawi x Hadaatha).

There’s been a change in policy at Shadwell in recent years with fillies staying in training past their three-year-old campaign and Al Husn will continue at four in 2023 as connections surely believe she is capable of gaining black-type. I certainly do.

The Dubawi filly improved 18lb last season as she went unbeaten in three starts, winning at Kempton and Newmarket’s Rowley Mile respectively. Indeed, she has raced exclusively at these two tracks throughout her career having split three runs there in 2021, but I hope she’ll be good enough for grander targets that will see her at the likes of York, Ascot and possibly even abroad this year.

I particularly liked the way she knuckled down when last seen, asserting close home when racing from off the pace and was ultimately good value for her half-length success. The runner-up, Something Enticing, consolidated that form when winning a Listed contest next time out and I think and hope that Al Husn could be a bit better than Listed level this term. She seemed to relish the step up to 10 furlongs last time and could well get a mile-and-a-half this season.

CIRCLE OF FIRE

Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Age: 3yo colt (Almanzor x Fiery Sunset)

Circle Of Fire made a pleasing debut at Leicester back in August, breaking slowly but making late gains into third behind experienced rivals once the penny finally dropped. He then left that well behind next time out, stepping up an extra furlong to a mile at Salisbury and going on to register and impressive three-and-a-quarter length victory. Breaking on terms on this occasion, he travelled strongly throughout, and it was most impressive when he was asked to go and win his race, shifting through the gears and pulling right away from the 90-rated Tabaretta. All in all, it was a smart performance.

It's hard to place him after only two starts as he has yet to be given a handicap mark, but I think he looks every inch a Pattern performer. He has size and scope to suggest that he will continue to improve as a three-year-old this season, with the promise of staying further given that he is by Almanzor and his dam won over a mile-and-a-half.

DESERT ORDER

Trainer: Charlie Appleby Age: 3yo colt (Dubawi x Duchess Of Berry)

I was at Newmarket to see this colt debut last July and while I must admit I don’t remember much of him in the flesh, I do remember thinking it was a proper maiden – as it so often is – and he’s since shown steady improvement following that third-placed introduction behind Epictetus (rated 111) and in front of Flying Honour (110) in fourth.

You could arguably say he posted a career-best next time out at Sandown when chinned by the subsequent Group One-placed Arrest (rated 113), with the pair pulling right away from the field following a sustained duel up the Sandown hill. The eventual winner is a live Derby prospect, so this effort is to be given huge respect and he was therefore entitled to win the way he did when scoring in game fashion in York’s Convivial Maiden next time out. Again, contesting another race with history for throwing up future Group One horses, he dominated proceedings when making all and pulled out more when challenged and always looked to be holding them under William Buick.

Remarkably, he was given a mark of 92 on the back of these excellent efforts, so his fourth and final start of the year came at Newmarket in a 7f Nursery and he looked to be thrown in off such a rating. However, the eventual winning margin of a neck does not quite do him justice as the son of Dubawi found the door closing as they entered the final furlong but had enough class to switch around rivals and powered home to win with a bit in hand.

Upped 4lb for that Newmarket victory, he returns this season rated 96 and remains very well-handicapped. Whether connections will stick around for a handicap is questionable as his form, as documented above, stacks up to that of a Group performer and I’ll be disappointed if he’s not able to make his mark in those types of races this season.

EDUCATOR

Trainer: William Haggas Age: 4yo gelding (Deep Impact x Diploma)

Educator was reappearing at the Craven Meeting this time last year and looked set for fruitful three-year-old campaign following a last-gasp success under Tom Marquand. Sadly, it proved to be quite the opposite as the son of Deep Impact met with a setback following that victory and was off track for 170 days.

During such time he changed ownership and Educator will forever be known as the first runner for HM King Charles III. Sadly, he was not able to justify short odds at Salisbury, acting up beforehand and ultimately proving no match for the progressive Okeechobee. I can forgive him for that effort after such an absence and Ryan Moore was not hard on him in the race, but he was a little disappointing when reappearing eight days later at Newmarket, making no telling impression and fading into tenth.

Put away thereafter, he has since been gelded and I have not given up hope on this horse fulfilling his clear early potential if such measures have the desired effect. A mark of 90 looks workable for this one-time Derby entry, with the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot a logical early-season target.

EMBRACE

Trainer: Owen Burrows. Age: 3yo filly (Lope De Vega x Whazzis)

You can take your pick from several impressive juvenile performances on the All-Weather at the backend of last year, including a host of Gosden winners at Kempton, but it was Owen Burrows’ Embrace that left a lasting impression as his Lope De Vega filly won in some style at Wolverhampton last November.

She’d run a race full of promise on debut at Kempton earlier that month, staying on from last position to finish in a blanket-finish for third position under tender handling from Jim Crowley. Heading onto Wolverhampton from there, she was quite keen in the early stages having broken from a wide berth but was on the heels of the leaders turning in and what she did from there is honestly worth the watch - sprinting past her rivals to win going away at the line in the manner of a very smart horse.

She likely went under the radar at the time, and I was thinking she could be one for something like the Sandringham this summer, but her handler has well and truly blown her cover as she is set to line up in the Group 3 Fred Darling at Newbury this weekend. What it does show is the regard in which she is clearly held by Burrows and it will be interesting to see how she fares pitched into the deep end.

A handicap mark will follow this weekend’s race – hopefully my initial target will prove to be some way beneath her actual talent.

HONITON

Trainer: John and Thady Gosden. Age: 4yo gelding (Dark Angel x Lacily)

Honiton was last seen weakening out of contention when well-fancied for the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot last June. Frankie Dettori reported that he ran flat that day and it remains to be seen if he picked up an injury in the race as he has been out of action ever since.

Rated 94, connections can welcome back a well-handicapped horse when the four-year-old returns this season as his form reads very nicely. The flashy grey had chased home the likes of My Prospero (rated 121), Secret State (110) and Eldar Eldarov (116) on his first three outings in 2022, before then posting a nine-length rout at Sandown as connections finally found a race without a Group 1 performer in opposition.

Honiton had more than held his own in deep company prior to that Sandown victory and it is hoped that can continue on an upward trajectory despite the intervening absence. He has been gelded during the interim and is one for all those top 10 furlong handicaps for the older horses this summer. He seems perfectly fine on all types of ground.

MILITARY ORDER

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Age: 3yo colt (Frankel x Anna Salai)

Military Order and William Buick win at Newmarket (focusonracing.com)

Military Order is my idea of this year’s Derby winner.

He runs on Friday at Newbury and this will tell connections whether they have an Epsom horse on their hands. The race in question has replaced the ten-furlong conditions stakes that Appleby has won over the past two years with Hurricane Lane and Walk Of Stars, and it would suggest that Military Order ranks highly from their Derby possibles.

Coincidently, the Frankel colt won the same Newmarket novice that Hurricane Lane won back in 2020 and this race has likely been pencilled in as a logical starting point for some time.

Before his Newmarket victory, Military Order had run well on debut at the same track, staying on nicely over an inadequate seven furlongs but not knocked about as he finished on the heels of the leaders in fourth. He therefore holds an identical profile to that of his brother, Adayar, going into his three-year-old campaign and I’m hoping he can emulate him.

Military Order was one of 20 second entries confirmed for the Derby this month at a cost of £9,000 and clearly all roads point towards Epsom in this early part of the season, as he is also entered in the Dante Stakes at York next month. A big, raw baby at the backend last year, he should have plenty more to offer as he matures this term and is probably the horse I’m most looking forward to this season.

Editor's note: Military Order was a convincing winner at Newbury on Friday.

PROMOTER

Trainer: Ralph Beckett Age: 3yo colt (Showcasing x Hereawi)

Promoter is one I’m looking forward to in those good staying handicaps for three-year-olds this season. He missed the summer last year with a setback following an underwhelming debut seventh but made a winning return in September, as he powered to a convincing novice success at Chepstow on slow ground. The runner-up that day, Racingbreaks Ryder, had fitness on his side and is now rated 84 and he was easily brushed aside as the Showcasing colt forged clear in the hands of Rossa Ryan.

Promoter then rounded off his campaign when fifth in the Group 3 Horris Hill at Newbury, never threatening to get involved on the Heavy ground but making late gains as he passed beaten horses in the final furlong. On breeding, he is sure to appreciate stepping up in trip this season and it bodes well that he was able to show a significant level of form as a juvenile.

His dam, Hereawi, was a stout stayer and I’d expect Promoter to be entered over at least 10 furlongs when he reappears. He clearly has no issues on softer ground, but I don’t think it is essential, and I think he rates an exciting prospect for Ralph Beckett this season.

YOTARID

Trainer: Ed Walker Age: 3yo colt (Shamardal x Hadaatha)

Yotarid was sighted only once last season but connections would have been delighted with his second-placed effort behind the highly-rated Flight Plan at Newcastle in November. The winner, now rated 102, already had the benefit of a previous run and was always in command in fairness, kicking clear to win in good style. However, Yotarid gave best in second, travelling nicely into proceedings under a considerate Ross Coakley ride and pulled seven lengths clear of the third in doing so.

Put away thereafter, it is hoped that he will improve on that promise when reappearing and I’d hope that any average novice or maiden would be within his grasp granted natural improvement. He is a half-brother to the aforementioned Al Husn, who, as noted above, improved 18lb during her three-year-old campaign and that hopefully bodes well for this son of Shamardal this coming season.

He has reportedly wintered well and has been pleasing connections at home. A mile to 10 furlongs should see him at his best this season.

ZIGGY

Trainer: Harry Eustace Age: 5yo gelding (Sixties Icon x Brushing)

Harry Eustace enjoyed a successful 2022 in just his second full season with a trainers’ licence, saddling 24 winners, including Royal Ascot glory with Latin Lover, whose victory in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes sparked wonderful scenes of celebration. Eustace also stables exciting prospects Couplet and Docklands and has a team of around 50 horses for the season ahead.

Further success should follow and I’m banking on Ziggy to play his part in some of those valuable 10 and 12 furlong handicaps this summer. Lightly-raced for his age, he was on the go throughout the winter, winning in some style at Kempton back in November and consolidating that when second in a Newcastle Fast-Track Qualifier next time out.

I think there’s still a bit left in the locker off 95 and something like the Jorvik Handicap at York’s Dante Meeting would be the type of race in which he could return next month. The Sixties Icon gelding enjoys racing from off a strong gallop and should enjoy those conditions in the big handicaps this summer. It would seem he enjoys a bit of ease underfoot.

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