Richard Hoiles' top tips for Tuesday: Mikmak can make mark

With nurseries just around the corner, this week I am going to focus on the two-year-olds and concentrate on a couple of areas in particular – trainers and first-season sires.

In both cases sample sizes are quite small and so some of the numbers have to be taken with a pinch of salt but, similarly, once an angle becomes obvious it loses its edge over the market so risks need to be taken and bandwagons jumped on early.

On the trainers’ front, this year’s star of the juvenile show has been Charlie Appleby who has a 45 per cent strike rate with his juveniles (18/40 – Actual/Expected 1.33 Par 1.00, stats via Proform).

Many Appleby youngsters go off at short prices but is it is interesting to compare his 2019 record with two-year-olds to that of Saeed Bin Suroor (4/31 A/E of just 0.50).

Summer Romance’s victory at the weekend was the latest classy performance by an Appleby juvenile and it is clear that he is the preferred trainer these days for Godolphin.

William Haggas has also made a faster start than usual with his juveniles with more winning first time out this season - 30 per cent (3/10) against a career record of less than 10 per cent.

By contrast, Richard Hannon (14/109, A/E 0.80) and Mick Channon (5/54, A/E 0.62) have been far slower to find their feet than is usually the case but along with Karl Burke (5/61, A/E 0.53) they could be yards to follow in the early nurseries.

It may well be they have poor crops this year but it could equally be the case that they were just not as far forward as previous years, or in the case of the Burke yard were just under a bit of a cloud.

The consequence could be that those early juvenile runners could well be allotted potentially lenient handicap marks and all are worth keeping an eye on in the two-year-old handicaps to see if this proves to be the case.

On the first-season sire front, there are several who have made a promising start and are worth keeping on the right side of until more become aware of their potential.

The highest profile is Gleneagles with an Ascot winner in Southern Hills and a very promising debutant in Ultra Violet among his five winners from only 20 starters.

As a Coolmore stallion he will not slide under the radar but a few less flashy names to keep an eye on include Cable Bay (9/56), Due Diligence (8/40) and Night of Thunder (6/25).

The first two stand quite cheaply and hence can often be handy angles into auction races as their progeny seldom cost much, whilst Night Of Thunder should gain even more success as the trips increase for juvenile races as we head through the season.

It is perhaps appropriate that my tips for Tuesday start with a juvenile:

Early speed is a big asset at Hamilton in sprint juvenile races where the field are immediately on the descent and inexperience can be costly.

Coastal Mist showed plenty of natural speed when winning at Wetherby and again when collared near the finish at Ripon.

It may be a bit of a white knuckle ride up the hill late on but hopefully free-wheeling downhill early will see him have enough in reserve at the finish.

From a speedy family, Last Empire handled the track well when scoring over course and distance last time and this race looks pretty shallow.

Unlike the two-year-old race the stalls are positioned in the centre for this race but she can make her way over to the rail if Danny Tudhope so desires.

After a quiet spell the Kevin Ryan yard had a welcome winner recently and could be about to turn the corner.

Tim Easterby’s horses are not always the easiest to catch right but Mikmak looked as if he could be about to capitalise on his falling mark after meeting trouble in the competitive Carlisle Bell last week.

The fact he is turned out quickly under the same rider could signal that he was primed for that valuable prize and so this race could well provide compensation while he is at the top of his game.

Worth another chance to confirm the promise of his Yarmouth success on his handicap debut after seeming to get bogged down in the ground at Newbury last time.

Sea Art should ensure a decent gallop, which should set the race up nicely as stamina looked his strong suit at Yarmouth.