2023 Breeders' Cup tips: race-by-race guide for Saturday

Tom Thurgood provides the overview and a handful of selections for all the action at the 2023 Breeders' Cup World Championships at Santa Anita. Enjoy every moment live on Racing TV.

Defending champion CODY'S WISH is a four-time Group One winner with a backstory that captures the imagination and he is surely the one to beat here. He's not flawless though and his tendency to start slowly is still something of a niggle, though it's difficult to put up something with conviction against him and he did win from off the pace and in great style in the Metropolitan Handicap three starts ago while he did so again cosily at a lesser level last time in an ideal prep for this assignment.

Zozos has won both of his starts over a mile and, while his form so far has come over that trip with one turn rather than the two he'll face here, the fact he could get an uncontested lead means he may be able to dictate things to a better degree under this configuration and he doesn't look one to readily dismiss.

He could be best of the rest while Stage Raider, a half-brother to Justify no less and one of the outsiders here, shaped quite nicely when second behind Zozos in Group Three company at Churchill Downs last time and could well have more to offer after just two starts for the Cherie DeVaux stable.

INSPIRAL and Warm Heart are the top two in the market for a contest in which the Europeans have historically fared well in, with the raiders landing 11 successes this century and six triumphs in the last decade - with a Japanese winner among the roll of honour to boot.

Inspiral has run out a Group One winner in each of her three seasons so far and she will relish the quick ground, while 1m2f on such a surface on a turning circuit at Santa Anita shouldn't pose a genuine stamina issue - indeed, her closing sectionals show she was pretty strong late on in both the Queen Anne and the Sun Chariot - and her form has far more subtance than that of the three-year-old Ballydoyle filly so far. She arrives her fairly fresh, too, though as always hopefully she settles OK especially with the downhill start. Inspiral is a 9-4 chance with Warm Heart around 3-1 ahead of this drop back down to 1m2f and they should be a bit further apart in the betting than that in my view.

In Italian is likely to go from the front and this Dubawi filly in the Peter Brandt silks has a slew of Group One experience, having won five races and finished runner-up four times in her 10 races so far. Fev Rover, a classy Group Two winner for Richard Fahey who finished third in Mother Earth's 1000 Guineas, is also likely to go from the front and is a dual-Group One winner for new trainer Mark Casse.

Of the outsiders, In The Moonlight is 20-1 and has over two lengths to find with Fev Rover from the E.P Taylor Stakes meeting at Woodbine last time while the Frankel filly also has three lengths to make up on In Italian from their Keeneland clash in April. However, this quicker ground here is really what she wants and she's fancied to get closer to those rivals now for Charlie Appleby, who has not hit the dizzy heights of recent years this term yet still remains a trainer who merits maximum respect at this meeting given his fine Breeders' Cup record.

This dirt contest is run over seven furlongs despite the race title and GOODNIGHT OLIVE could have things run to suit here with the trailblazing Society and Eda potentially teeing up things to a nicety in front of her.

The Ghostzapper mare has won six of her eight starts, with the first of her only defeats coming in Group One company at Churchill Downs in May when repeatedly denied a run, while her second career loss occurred when second behind top-level performer and odds-on chance Echo Zulu on a muddy track in the Group One Ballerina Handicap last time. However, she posted a strong speed figure there and trainer Chad Brown said he was keen not to run Midnight Olive before the Breeders' Cup after that big effort.

This seven-furlong specialist won this race last year at Keeneland when similarly prepping in the Ballerina and all looks set for a very bold title defence.

Modern Games triumphed in this race last year and his sister - MAWJ - bids to land this race for third successive year for the Godolphin blue after success in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket earlier this year before an excellent Breeders' Cup prep with victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland last moth on her sole start subsequently. She's lightly-raced, has a fine attitude, looked good last time and there is likely more to come over a course and short home straight that should be to her liking a bit more than some of these.

Master Of The Seas is a classy performer who bids to become a third successive winner in this race for trainer Charlie Appleby, even though the one-time Guineas runner-up probably doesb't have the pick of form in recent starts to make him an especially compelling pick and his draw in 14 is another negative.

Songline appeals more as a Japanese contender for a racing nation that has excelled on the world stage in recent years and as one who has already proved her efficacy abroad after success earlier in the year at the Saudi Cup meeting. She will love the quick ground and her outing last time looked an obvious prep for Santa Anita after two prior Group One wins in Tokyo. Will she be able to pounce on Mawj with that rival likely in front of her at the start of the fairly short home run?

Gina Romantica ran down the high-class In Italian last time and that filly is a decent contender for the Filly & Mare Turf, though she has shown her best form at Keeneland so far and trainer Chad Brown suspects if she might be returning a tad soon after that big effort.

Idiomatic is bidding for a brilliant five-timer and has come from relative aonymity in the ranks this season despite being by Curlin and boasting a typically high-class Juddmonte pedigree. A winner of six of her seven starts this year, she has won both Group One starts this term (only made top-level debut at the end of August) and did so by wide margins on both occasions. She is on a roll, though this front-runner could have competition for the lead in a race which could feature a very hot early pace.

The three-year-old Randomized and four-year-old Uncle Mo filly Adare Manor - bidding for a six-timer here - also like to force things from the front, so Clairiere should like this set-up even if she needs to bounce back from a disappointing effort last time in the Personal Ensign. This firm ground will be more to her liking than the sloppy track at Saratoga, though.

SEARCH RESULTS has led from pillar to post in recent wins but she is able to take a lead and given how this race looks likely to pan out connections will presumably go down that route. Trainer Chad Brown believes she is better with a target to aim at and reports her to be doing as well as ever ahead of this.

The probable highlight of this year's Breeders' Cup for British and Irish racing fans, the top four in the market are all trained in Europe with even outsiders Broome and Bolshoi Ballet adding further familiarity.

Auguste Rodin is a high-class colt - even if you don't wholly know what you're quite going to get from him - though he looks opposable given he got the run of things somewhat in the Irish Champion Stakes and, while he is maybe seen as more of a stayer and this move up to 1m4f seemingly up his alley, his best form has come in a fast-finishing Derby at Epsom and over 1m2f at Leopardstown.

King Of Steel might well be the better horse now after probably being downed by inexperience as much as anything when beaten by Auguste Rodin at Epsom. He shaped well in the Irish Champion Stakes and won the Champion Stakes last time despite the ground. He's reportedly in a good place and he's an imposing colt who may well improve again net year, but he had a hard race at Ascot and that can't be an ideal prep for this.

ONESTO ran a cracker in the Arc last time on quick ground after an eye-catching return in the Prix Jacques le Marois - proving his Irish Champion Stakes disappointment all wrong in between - and given he's quoted at 15-2 he gets the nod for a nation that has trained the Turf winner seven times this century.

Mostahdaf will love these ground conditions and is much respected. He may get the better of Auguste Rodin here, though his form has arguaby lost a touch of lustre in recent weeks.

This is an open race though Dubai World Cup winner USHBA TESORO is hard to knock given he did it well in Meydan despite charting a wider course than ideal and he was strong at the finish, a useful attribute in any case but particularly here with the fast-starting Saudi Crown expected to make a bold bid from the front. The Japanese horse - unlike compatriot Derma Sotogake - has had a nice preparation ahead of this Breeders' Cup highlight with a smooth return success in his homeland last month and all looks in place for a big effort.

White Abarrio is perhaps not the easiest to predict given he was a three-year-old only Group One winner and beaten a long way on the majority of his top-level starts before his latest run, but his Whitney Stakes romp last time would give him decent claims here in the event he can reproduce it.

Similarly, Zandon - the mount of Frankie Dettori - posted his best effort of the season last time at Group Two level but off the back of his more consistent campaign there is greater conveiction that he could potentially be peaking at just the right time and could prove capable of out-running his odds under the world-class rider who jumps aboard for the first time.

The LIVE IN THE DREAM story has proven one of the highlights of this British Flat season and many will be willing him to success in this $1m prize. While quotes of 7-2 initially look a tad short - perhaps because he went off at 50-1 at York - his Nunthorpe win has been pretty well-advertised by the principal protagonists from the Knavesmire and he did show notable early speed on his Breeders' Cup prep run in the Woodford Stakes at Keeneland. Connections report him to be thriving in Santa Anita and he's fancied to run a big race with the genuine prospect of more still to come.

If there's one concern, it's that defending title-holder Caravel may provide competition on the pace although that rival has to contend with a very different track from Keeneland this year and this trip would be a minimum for the six-year-old mare.

Big Invasion has form that ties in with Caravel, finishing just behind her in the Group One Jaipur Stakes over six furlongs at Belmont in June, and he could be running on at the finish from his favourable inside draw and he may well hit the places a bigger odds.

The final race of this year's Breeders' Cup extravaganza - the Sprint on the dirt being the ninth race on the card and for the first time - sees defending champion Elite Power take a short-price billing to follow up last year's success. His trainer Bill Mott has cited concern about the lack of early pace compared to last year and he ultimately came up short last time in a slowly-run Group One race over seven furlongs at Saratoga, but that was the five-year-old's first defeat in 18 months having been on an eight-race win streak prior to that. Even if this doesn't pan out ideally, he could still have too much here and comes into this fresh after a lay-off.

Gunite beat Elite Power last time and this colt - who has run several times at a mile - arguably has a but more to offer at seven furlongs, while Speed Boat Beach could get the run of things out in front in a race which looks to lack pace for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith providing the three-year-old - coming here off the back of just five previous lifetime starts - puts his best foot forward and breaks on terms.

Five last-time out scorers and three Royal Ascot winners line up in a 12-runner field which is strong on European representation, headed by Big Evs.

He forces things from the front and it's notable that there is plenty of early pace on here - and noted early pace of American-trained speedsters too - via Crimson Advocate, No Nay Mets and Slider. The Ado McGuiness-trained Tiger Belle should be up there too.

The set-up is a concern for the Mick Appleby-trained runner and this could potentially suit something ridden with a bit more restraint, while a test at the trip could bring about decent efforts from Irish challengers Givemethebeatboys and Cherry Blossom, Group One performers now back to the minimum trip.

SHARDS is an interesting runner at bigger prices after the Bucchero colt travelled quite sweetly when positioned further back off what looked an overly strong pace in the Listed Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland last time and was just denied despite suffering late interference. This could pan out similarly and he could well be hitting the line strongly at decent odds even if this is a big jump in class.

The unbeaten TAMARA - by Bolt D'Oro out of the brilliant Beholder, the three-time Breeders' Cup winner who is among the roll of honour in this race - rates as one of the headline acts on the Friday and across both days at this year's Breeders' Cup and she will be a short price to make it three wins from three starts so far.

She steps up to an extended mile and additionally goes around two turns for the first time here, though Richard Mandella is sounding rightly confident as his filly is set to line up as the shortest-priced runner at this year's meeting after cantering to success and by the best part of seven lengths at Group One level last time.

The four unbeaten fillies in the line-up also include Candied, Just F Y I and Jody's Pride. The last-named perhaps warrants a small mention at bigger prices after scoring by big margins on both starts and, while the American Pharoah filly steps up from Group Three level against some exciting rivals and takes a big step-up in distance to boot, if she improves for both of those she is capable of running better than her odds suggest from a favourable low draw.

Eight of these are lining up on the back of last-time out wins in a field which boasts two Group One winners, four Group Two winners and two Group Three winners.

Carla's Way heads the betting though her standout performance in the Rockfel last time - while well-advertised by Shuwari and Yland Yland subsequently in the Fillies' Mile - came in a race in which she rocketed into an early lead on a track that favours front-runners and in an event where nothing really got into it. She could well repeat the trick here but that will be much harder against US-trained juveniles and the draw could have been kinder.

PORTA FORTUNA also steps up to a mile for the first time and that's something for her to conclusively prove too, but she's out of a 1m4f winner and her sire Caravaggio was a staying sprinter. Her form appeals most overall of the raiders and she makes appeal at 11-2 under Oisin Murphy.

Hard To Justify travelled nicely but looked well-placed to land the Group Two Miss Grillo Stakes at the Belmont At The Big A meeting in an extended mile contest that didn't look a test at the trip last time. Life's An Audible ran on well at a big price from further back and over a stiffer test this time could outrun current 20-1 quotes for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr.

Four Group One winnrs and three runners-up at the top level line up in a race where all thee principal trial form is represented in what promises to be a good heat for the two-year-old colts on the dirt.

He's a relatively short price in a strong race, but LOCKED appeals as one of the more assured options here after overcoming a bit of adversity and a wide passage when justifying odds-on quotes on Group One debut in the Claiborne Breeders Futurity at Keeneland last month. He's proven over this trip, over two turns over this extended mile and it's difficult to readily see runner-up The Wine Steward reversing that form.

Timberlake is another for the shortlist after an easy win in the Group One Champagne Stakes last time though that was on a sloppy track and conditions will be different here, whil Muth is much respected even if enthusiasm is significantly dimmed by his wide outside berth in stall 10.

Prince Of Monaco was no less than 1-20F to land Group One honours last time and unsurprisingly he managed to do so, even if he was kept up to his work and only won by half a length in what must go down as an underwhelming effort. He steps up another furlong in trip here and it's not certain that will suit.

This has mostly been the preserve of the European contingent in recent years, with the US runners winning five of the last 15 renewals, and Ryan Moore and Aidan O'Brien have combined to win this five times since 2011 and hold leading claims once again with RIVER TIBER.

The Royal Ascot winner has returned with credit after an enforced mid-season break through injury, firstly in a strong running of the Prix Morny on testing ground and then on a quicker surface in the Middle Park - once again finishing behind leading juvenile Vandeek.

There doesn't look an abundance of pace on here and this forward racer could be well-placed over a extended mile trip for the first time which promises to eke out further improvement. At bigger prices, pace-setter My Boy Prince has probably got the run of things in recent starts but he's certainly talented and he might be hard for most of these to overhaul late on.